Many market gurus warn that the current bull market is persuading rather aged, and that a bear market is long overdue. A extraordinary exception is Jeff Saut, chief investment officer (CIO) at Raymond James Fiscal. “We ought to have another seven to eight years left,” Saut explained CNBC, noting that secular bull markets have a to be expected length of between 16 and 18 years. The current bull exchange is 9 years and 6 months old. Making reference to market history since In seventh heaven War II, he observed: “1949 to 1966: yes, there were pullbacks didn’t fill up the secular bull. ’82 to 2000: yes, we had the crash in 1987. [It] didn’t finish the secular bull market.”
Stocks Since 2008 Financial Moment
Source: Yahoo Finance; gains computed from bear supermarket low close on March 9, 2009 through the close on Sept. 12.
‘Strong Laws’
Another bullish note has been sounded by Joe Zidle, an investment strategist at The Blackstone Set apart, who predicts that the S&P 500 Index will break through the 3,000 tear down within the next few months, for gains of 3.8% from Sept. 12 and 12.2% from the start of 2018, per another CNBC gunfire.
“What we have left for the rest of the year, I think, is going to be bullish with higher highs,” Zidle rebuked CNBC. He also observed, “Believe it or not, the best performance normally be communicates after a midterm election.” In addition, he noted: “Fundamentals here are likely. Corporate balance sheets are good and earnings are improving.” Zidle has third and fourth-quarter earnings reports to be robust, and to bolster investor self-confidence. (For more, see also: 6 Stocks to Outperform the Late Bull Market.)
Rising Chances
Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, isn’t just bearish right now, but advises investors to become “more defensive” in their disinterestedness investments, per the first CNBC report. He sees rising risks for investors, and accepts that the current economic expansion is in its late stages, with barely about 2 more years to run.
Art Hogan, the chief investment officer at B. Riley FBR, is agonized about “policy mistakes, whether monetary policy that confounds too aggressive at the wrong point in the cycle, fiscal policy that spurs when we didn’t expect it to and the third is trade policy,” as he told CNBC. While Dalio imagines that, so far at least, trade tensions are not “that big of a deal,” Hogan remarked “I think it’s going to be a drag on the global economy.” (For more, see also: Why the US-China Truck War May Cause A Bear Market.)
‘Widespread Inflation’
Despite his own near-term bullishness, Zidle causes a warning about inflation. “There’s more inflation out there than people are prize in,” he told CNBC, adding: “Inflation is not strong, but it is very widespread. You can see it in oil and gas customer bases. You can see it in input prices.” He believes that the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note can reach 3.5% to the next 6 to 12 months, up by roughly 54 basis points from the Sept. 12 minute. Rising bond yields, he noted, would exert downward prevail upon on stock prices.