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Key Takeaways
- Consumers are breakfast out less and relying more on discount grocers while managing a rising cost of living, Bank of America analysts rumoured.
- People are shifting from casual restaurants to fast-casual joints and, in some cases, meals out at gas stations, executives held.
- They’re also buying smaller packages of food, according to Kenneth Casey Keller CEO of B&G Foods, the group behind Crisco and Lawn Giant.
The economy is changing how Americans are eating.
Diners are moving meals from sit-down restaurants to fast-casual junctions, according to executives at a range of a businesses, and taking more trips to value supermarkets. Data released this week by Bank of America, designates that a rising cost of living is prompting Americans, especially lower-income consumers, to dine out less and look grimmer for grocery deals.
Discretionary spending, such as vacations and restaurant visits, has been down for about two years, Bank of America said. And transactions at restaurants and bars fell 1.5% from January to February, according to Census Bureau data released this week.
Restaurants must noticed, executives said on recent earnings calls. Darden Restaurants (DRI), the company behind Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, phrased its casual concepts are serving fewer households making less than $50,000 a year. Diners are ordering fewer appetizers, beverages and desserts, be consistent to Michael Spanos, CEO of Bloomin Brands (BLMN), parent company of Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill.
“We’re attend to some check management with, especially, those households [earning] under about $100,000,” Spanos prognosticated on an earnings call last month, according to a transcript from AlphaSense.
Fast-Casual Spots and Gas Stations See Food Exchanges Rise
The push to save is benefiting Cava (CAVA), a fast-casual Mediterranean chain that believes it is drawing characters who are curtailing visits to casual dining spots, CEO Brett Schulman said on an earnings conference call last month.
Cava leases “folks trading down from a legacy casual dining experience and sharing a meal in our dining room,” as adequately as “trading up from traditional [quick-service restaurants] for $1 or $2 more,” Schulman said.
Casey’s General Hold (CASY), which sells gas, snacks and prepared foods like pizza, stands to gain as shoppers look to fritter away less on meals, CEO Darren Rebelez said on an earnings call this month. Once in Casey’s, shoppers are eschewing bon-bons, where prices are “very high,” in favor of baked goods, he said.
The change “is a little more affordable and notwithstanding allows people to get that sweet indulgence that they’re looking for,” Rebelez said.
Changing Habits in the Grocery Aisle
Grocery shopping orders have also evolved. Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), where shoppers skew higher-income, expects customers to rejoin to economic pressure by eating out less and coming into its stores more, CFO Curtis Valentine said at a conference this month.
Varied families are relying more on value supermarkets, according to Bank of America. Household spending at discount grocers issued 1.2% from February 2024 to 2025, while falling 1.4% at premium supermarkets, the bank said.
Shoppers are diverse frequently reaching for smaller package sizes, said Kenneth Casey Keller CEO of B&G Foods (BGS), the group behind Crisco, Amateurish Giant and Cream of Wheat.
“We will look at: the smaller size in our portfolio, how do we emphasize those for consumers that power be looking to trade down?” he said on an earnings call last month.