- The Lib Dems are butt swathes of seats held by Conservatives at the next general election.
- The anti-Brexit party led by Jo Swinson believes an voting will happen this autumn.
- Party figures and MPs tell Business Insider they are confident that the Tories’ take up of Boris Johnson and no-deal Brexit has driven their voters to the Lib Dems across a number of foci.
- However, a Lib Dem resurgence could indirectly help Johnson and his mission to deliver Brexit.
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The Liberal Democrats are in a confident mood as they prepare for a possible clasp energy general election.
The anti-Brexit party, now led by Jo Swinson, is buoyed by its resurgence in 2019. It surged in local and European Parliament votes earlier this year, and last week won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
Some polls have put the Lib Dems end behind – or level with – the Conservatives and Labour.
Party figures are bullish about their prospects in an autumn voting, which Boris Johnson is reportedly considering. They believe they pose a direct threat to the Conservatives, as Johnson struggles to consume Brexit Party support with his “do or die” approach to leaving the European Union, and pushes the United Kingdom closer to a no-deal take it on the lam.
There is speculation that the Lib Dems will soon fire warning shots to the Tories by unveiling up to three new MPs.
Ancient Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston, who is now an independent, is set to be the first. The party has also had talks with current Conservative MP Philip Lee and ex-Tory Heidi Allen. Past minister Lee said last week he would “spend the summer” mulling whether to defect to the Lib Dems.
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One party originator said they have plans to unveil a new MP at their conference in Bournemouth next month.
Lib Dems plan to clear the Conservative ‘blue wall’
Aside from possible defections, the party has also set its sights on swathes of seats kept by Conservative MPs. Party sources say the the number of seats they can take from the Tories at the next election is in double calculates.
These seats – largely but not exclusively in the south of England – were part of the “blue wall” that was key to ex-prime curate David Cameron’s majority victory at the 2015 general election. These target seats include Cheltenham and St Ives in the southwest, with the addition of Richmond Park and St Albans in the southeast.
Repelled by the Conservative party’s lurch to the right, its embrace of a no deal, and the election of Johnson as prime preacher, “moderate” Tory voters in these seats are ready to ditch their old party for the Lib Dems, the latter says.
Sarah Olney, the Lib Dem seeker in Richmond Park, said many voters in her south London constituency were abandoning the Conservatives as they mature the party of the hardest-possible Brexit.
“They really strongly believe the Conservatives no longer reflect their own political perceptions – and these are people who always voted Tory,” Olney – who served as the seat’s MP for six months in 2017 – told Business Insider.
“What they suppose in is stability and prosperity, and they don’t feel they’re getting that with the Conservatives.”
Richmond Park is the Lib Dems’ top butt seat in England. They were just 45 votes behind the Tories there in 2017.
Olney said a “fundamental” shift was happening on the ground, with voters who in 2017 were not precooked to ditch the Tories and risk a government led by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, now prepared to do so. “They still don’t want a Corbyn regulation but nor do they want their votes to be used as a mandate for a no-deal Brexit,” Olney said.
Daisy Cooper, the knees-up’s candidate in St Albans, just north of London, told Business Insider that the Conservative MP there “was out of touch on a complete range of issues and with their [constituents’] values.”
The seat’s MP is Anne Main, who belongs to the European Research Alliance of staunch pro-Brexit Conservative MPs. Estimates suggest the anti-Brexit Lib Dems won in St Albans with over 40% of the vote at the European votes.
Cooper said the Lib Dems could win in “upwards of 100 seats” in total at the next election. Both her and Olney symbolized former Tories in their constituencies were not just repeatedly bringing up Brexit, but climate change and crime too.
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Chuka Umunna MP, the party’s Treasury spokesperson, told Business Insider “either you quest after to retain One Nation, Remain-orientated Tory voters, or you seek to take Brexit Party and Labour Leave support. You can’t do both.
“It increasingly looks delight in – given the Vote Leave, ultra-hard Brexit complexion of the government – that the Conservatives are saying to Remain-voting, or even moderate Brexit Tory voters, we are no longer interested in you.”
“We [the Liberal Democrats] are quite clear as a party that the Lib Dems are the proficient in for those voters.”
A ‘blessing in disguise’ for Johnson?
While Lib Dems are optimistic close to taking seats from the Tories at the next election, they realise that eroding this particular constituency of the Rights’ electoral coalition is not necessarily a route to stopping Brexit.
In fact, the Lib Dem resurgence, should it hold into the next selection, could be a “blessing in disguise” for Johnson and his mission to deliver Brexit, according to Chris Curtis, a political researcher at YouGov.
He unburdened Business Insider that while the Lib Dems were likely to win seats currently held by Tories at the next choosing, they could actually help Johnson indirectly, by taking votes from Labour in Conservative-Labour marginal headquarters.
YouGov’s latest opinion poll put the Lib Dems on 21%, just one point behind Labour. Its recent research flaunted that for every one vote the Lib Dems were taking off the Conservatives, they were taking at least two off Labour.
“While the Tories could run out of 20 or 30 seats on that flank [to the Lib Dems], if the Lib Dems take a lot of votes from Labour in Labour-Tory on the edges, then the Conservatives can make up their losses to the Lib Dems,” Curtis said.
Johnson feasibly could offset buttocks lost to Swinson with seats gained at the expense of the Labour Party bleeding pro-EU support to the Lib Dems. This commons that contrary to some recent commentary, the Tories do not necessarily have to preserve Cameron’s “blue wall” in shot to win the next election and form a majority government.
This at least partly explains why Johnson, guided by political advisor Dominic Cummings, has prioritised delightful the Brexit Party vote, which consists of many former Conservative voters. If he can unite Leavers behind him, the go up in smoke of the Tories’ “moderate” pillar at the expense of the Lib Dems, likely won’t stop the Tories staying in government.
“As far as I can see, it’s the best tactics they [the Conservatives] have got,” YouGov’s Curtis told Business Insider.
How can the Lib Dems and other Remain parties combat this?
One possible strategy that is being discussed is an electoral association involving Labour MPs in a handful of seats.
It is very unlikely that Labour HQ would approve a formal pact between their MPs and those from other individuals. This is particularly the case for the Lib Dems, who Labour lambaste for their role in the Coaliton government.
However, writer Cut Cohen revealed yesterday that Unite to Remain – a cross-party, anti-Brexit alliance headed by Heidi Allen – intent not actively campaign in seats where Labour MPs who clearly want to stop Brexit were standing.
Figures somewhere else in the pro-EU movement told Business Insider they’ve had positive discussions with a handful of Labour MPs who explicitly conflicting Brexit, about coordinating with candidates from other Remain parties.
Moreover, the phenomenon described by YouGov’s Curtis – in which a Lib Dem renaissance actually helps Prime Minister Johnson – will not materialise if Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party enjoys a prong in support come election time.
Farage has said he does not trust the Tories enough to help by Johnson by place down Brexit Party candidates in a snap election. Failure to deliver Brexit on October 31 could derail Johnson’s impetus overnight.
What we know for sure is the Lib Dems pose a direct threat to a significant strand of Conservative support, and are well-placed to win discrete more House of Commons seats at the Tories’ expense.
What’s less clear is whether a successful Lib Dem assault on those butt seats would help their mission to stop Brexit.