In one week, the GOP could win a political trifecta in Virginia that could upend abortion access in the South

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• Virginia is a judgemental Southern battleground in the fight over abortion policy ahead of 2024.
• Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin wants to enact a 15-week abortion ban, employment it “reasonable.”
• Democrats are pushing back, arguing that such a ban is a slippery slope to more restrictions.

In Virginia, there’s minor dispute that abortion is on the ballot.

The November legislative races in the Commonwealth are the first election cycle since newest year’s overturn of Roe v. Wade where every seat in both chambers — 100 seats in the state House of Go-betweens and 40 seats in the state Senate — are up for grabs.

Democrats in the Commonwealth had been ascendant for much of the past decade, but they now receive a major roadblock in Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who turned out conservatives and flipped just enough swing voters in 2021 to win that year’s gubernatorial nomination.

The November elections have already scrambled Virginia’s political calculus, as candidates across the Commonwealth are running in new legislative parts that resulted from the state’s new redistricting process. A slew of veteran lawmakers opted out of running for reelection this year, which is waiting to inject fresh blood into a legislature known for its collegiality and stability.

Here’s how the explosive abortion consideration is impacting races across Virginia:

Republicans want a governing trifecta

When Youngkin won the governorship, he brought along now-Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears and now-Attorney Common Jason Miyares in a GOP sweep that put Democrats on notice that Virginia still had a purplish tinge.

The House of Appoints flipping from Democratic control to the GOP that year further bolstered this fact.

Democrats still set up a lot going for them: They have won every presidential election in Virginia since Barack Obama carried the state in 2008. Their intrepidity in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads — and increasingly in Richmond’s suburbs — has often allowed them to offset the rural cogency that Republicans enjoy. And most Virginia voters back some form of abortion rights, with a brand-new Washington Post-Schar School poll revealing that 51% of likely voters think Democrats are better suited to utilize the issue, giving them a 17-point edge over the GOP.

But with the uncertainty that comes with meet in new districts across the state, Republicans believe it’s a great opportunity for them to expand on their current 48-46 House of Delegates adulthood (with six vacancies) and win back the state Senate, where Democrats have a 22-18 majority.

Zach Gibson/Getty Graven images

A GOP trifecta would be a stunning development for Virginia, which only two years ago had a government controlled by Democrats, with then-Gov. Ralph Northam endorsing bills that vastly expanded voting rights and abolished the death penalty, among other measures.

With a GOP seniority in both chambers, Youngkin would also be able to push a conservative agenda ahead of a potential presidential run.

Democrats are pointing to abortion

Youngkin insufficiencies to impose a 15-week abortion ban in Virginia. The Commonwealth currently permits abortion through the second trimester, or approximately 26 weeks, which currently makes the situation a safe haven among its Southern counterparts, many of which have adopted far stricter regulations in the post-Roe scene.

Abortions in the third trimester are rarely performed in the state, and only occur when three physicians can affirm that the handmaiden’s health is at risk.

This year, Democrats in the state Senate were able to block his proposal, making the house a bulwark against his plans.

So Youngkin has sought to campaign across the state for GOP candidates, calling the 15-week limit a “sober” measure and seeking to paint Democrats as the ones who are extreme on the issue — arguing that they aren’t supporting limits that most people purpose support.

But Democrats have forcefully pushed back on the GOP narrative, arguing that the 15-week proposal is simply a leaf-stalk horse for the party to further restrict the procedure in Virginia. This year, other Southern states like Florida and South Carolina antiquated six-week abortion bans.

With Democratic candidates having successfully employed abortion access as a depreciative issue in many US House and Senate races across the country last year and Republicans looking to hone an abortion address that doesn’t drive away independents, the Virginia legislative races are the opening salvo on an issue that isn’t contemporary away in 2024.