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- Former State Senator Cal Cunningham is challenging GOP Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina in one of the scad highly-watched Senate races of 2020.
- Tillis, who was first elected in the Republican wave year of 2014, is up for a tough re-election altercation in 2020.
- Cunningham posted impressive fundraising numbers in his campaign and has led Tillis by substantial margins in recent polls of the state.
- Opinion polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 p.m ET, and Insider will have live results as they come in.
- Visit Role Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Former State Senator Cal Cunningham is challenging GOP Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina in one of the most highly-watched Senate racecourses of 2020.
Polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 p.m ET, and Insider will have live results as they come in.
The prospects
Tillis was first elected in the Republican wave of 2014, and is now running for a second term in an increasingly competitive state. In the Senate, Tillis serves on the strong Judiciary and Armed Services Committees. He was previously the speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.
Cunningham, a US Army practised and former state legislator, is mainly emphasizing increasing access to healthcare, improving education, and combatting climate coppers in his policy platform.
He’s also posted impressive fundraising numbers in his campaign so far, a promising sign of his ability to compete in a phase with several pricey media markets. In 2020’s second fundraising quarter, Cunningham broke an all-time US Senate every ninety days fundraising record in the state with a $7.4 million haul.
On October 1st, National File published sexual extracts of Cunningham’s that appeared to show him cheating on his wife with a public relations strategist. The texts were strengthened to be real by Cunningham’s campaign staff on Friday to The News & Observer.
“I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am emotionally sorry. The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do. I ask that my family’s reclusion be respected in this personal matter,” Cunningham told The News & Observer.
Cunningham’s scandal, however, did not immediately play to hurt Cunningham’s standing in the polls. Indeed, he’s led Tillis in every single public poll released since the smear broke.
As New York Magazine Ben Jacobs put it: “In the era of Trump, violating the Seventh Commandment is no longer an automatic career-killer. Voters may hatred the sin, but they’ll cast their ballots for the sinner.”
The stakes
In addition to winning back the White House, regaining supervise of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either relinquishing on a future president Joe Biden’s policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.
Currently, the US Senate is take to ones heeled up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats necessary to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also act as as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote).
North Carolina voted for President Barack Obama in 2008, but flicked to vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016.
Now, with Trump in an increasingly precarious position heading into his re-election, Democrats are exhorting a play to bring the state back into their coalition and pick up a crucial US Senate seat.
In a further bothering sign for Tillis’ chances, he’s performed behind Trump in many of the most recent polls of the race. A poll of North Carolina conducted by NBC Tidings and Marist College in late October, for example, found Trump earning the support of 46% of likely voters
Biden be conducive ti Trump by 1.6 points on average in the presidential race in North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.
See Insider’s well-rounded guide to the race for the US Senate here
The money race
Cunningham has significantly outraised and outspent Tillis, according to the Center for Alert Politics.
Cunningham has brought in a total of $47.5 million this cycle, has spent $46.6 million, and has a little beyond $886,000 in cash on hand, while Tillis has raised $18.9 million, spent $17.5 million, and has $3.5 million in change on hand this cycle, according to campaign finance records.
In 2020’s third fundraising quarter, Cunningham outraised Tillis by a numerous than four-to-one ratio, bringing in a stunning haul of $28.3 million compared to just $6.6 million for Tillis.
In appendage to being a hotly-contested battleground state in the electoral college, North Carolina’s Senate seat is a must-win for Democrats try to take back the chamber, and has attracted a record-breaking amount in outspending.
The Center for Responsive Politics concludes that with a impressive total of $233 million spent by both the candidates themselves and outside groups, North Carolina’s Senate get a wiggle on is the most expensive congressional election in US history, breaking a record of $213 million spent in Florida’s 2018 US Senate choice.
What the polling says
Cunningham has led Tillis every single public poll of the race released since June, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker, and take the leads Tillis by 2.8 percentage points on average in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
The most recent poll of the race conducted by Emerson College from October 29-31 organize Cunningham leading Tillis by three points, 50% to 47%, among likely voters.
A previous survey controlled by CNN/SSRS from October 23-30 also found Cunningham leading Tillis by three points, 47% to 44%, bulk likely voters, while another Marist College/NBC News poll conducted October 25-28 found Cunningham on by a much larger margin, 10 points, 53% to 43%.
What experts say
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Political science rate this race as a “toss-up” while Inside Elections rates it as “tilts Democratic.”
According to FiveThirtyEight’s US Senate anticipate, Cunningham has a 64% chance of defeating Tillis in November. As of late September, Cunningham is expected to receive 50% of the back up, about three percentage points more than Tillis.