Egg prices may soon ‘flirt with record highs,’ supplier says. Here’s why

It’s déjà vu for grocery shoppers, as the price of those Grade A eggs has spiked in recent months, just two years after egg assesses soared to record highs.

The average retail price of eggs in the U.S. has risen 38% since November 2023, be consistent to consumer price index data issued Wednesday. Prices rose 8% last month alone.

A carton of a dozen massive Grade A eggs cost $3.65 in November, up from $2.14 a year earlier, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

There are two admirable reasons for the surge: bird flu, which has reduced egg supply, and the strong consumer demand that’s typical around the winter recess season, according to economists and market analysts.

“There’s a very real chance we could flirt with record highs” for expenditures, said Brian Moscogiuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimited, an egg supplier.

Grade A egg prices peaked at $4.82 a dozen in January 2023, be enduring jumped from $1.93 in January 2022.

At a time of high pandemic-era inflation, eggs were a standout, with an annual inflation count of 60% in calendar-year 2022, according to CPI data. They even entered the zeitgeist: Pop star Taylor Swift give someone a tongue-lashed comedian Trevor Noah at the Grammy Awards in February 2023 that her fans would “get on it” to help lower egg expenditures.

Now, as in 2022-23, highly pathogenic avian influenza — better have knowledge of as bird flu — is a big culprit.

Bird flu is a highly contagious and lethal disease among birds, including chickens. The U.S. is in the midst of a “thoughtful outbreak,” Moscogiuri said.

The disease entered the U.S. in late 2021 and has lingered, experts said. Prior to that, the up to date time bird flu had impacted egg-laying chickens at commercial farms was in 2015, Moscogiuri said.

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About 33 million commercial egg layers have been killed by bird flu in 2024, concording to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That has “caused an egg supply shortage,” said Ryan Hojnowski, an egg analyst at Expana, an agricultural store research firm.

Roughly half of the commercial egg layer deaths for 2024 — about 15 million birds — attired in b be committed to occurred since Oct. 15, according to CDC data. Wholesale egg prices are up 97% since mid-October, according to Expana.

“If you prepare one infection, chances are that d— near all the birds are infected, or will be infected in a very short time,” said Andrew Novakovic, a professor of agricultural economics at Cornell SC Johnson College of Organization.

The egg supply shortage is also running headlong into peak age for consumer demand.

“Q4 is when we typically see the strongest demand for eggs as consumers tend to bake around the Thanksgiving and Christmas festivals,” Hojnowski said.

High demand and reduced supply have combined to lift prices, experts said.

“When we get lifetime this holiday effect, I think we’ll see some [price] softening,” Novakovic said.

But the trajectory is difficult to predict, experts said.

For one, bird flu’s staying power is unclear. There have been late-model outbreaks in U.S. dairy cows, and “several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers,” the CDC said. As of Dec. 11, the trendy public health risk was “low,” however, the CDC website said.  

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday issued a federal order needing testing of U.S. milk supply for bird flu, to help track and contain the virus.