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As news of several effective Covid-19 vaccines offers some light at the end of the tunnel that is 2020, resolve a beleaguered travel and tourism industry — one of the hardest hit by the pandemic — soon begin to recover?
Possibly, say sources, but they monition that travel may take years to fully rebound and, no matter the timing, will likely look different than it did pre-pandemic.
“The scuttlebutt of a potential vaccine does hold promise for travel in 2021,” said Julie Hall, spokeswoman for AAA. “But … travelers essential to be focused on knowing the risks of traveling and exposure in the here and now.”
Brian O’Connell, analyst at InsuranceQuotes.com, takes an even diverse measured stance. “I’m just not bullish on travel for the first half of 2021 – even if a vaccine is mass produced in that timeframe,” he verbalized. “Caution is the watchword, as the vaccine will take months to be fully distributed in the U.S. and abroad.”
Kayak.com CEO Steve Hafner bid he thinks “people are taking more a wait-and-see approach … until one of these vaccines gets out there.”
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However, the online travel agency did see a frustrate in searches — if not purchases — right after pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced 95% efficacy for its Covid vaccine on Nov. 10. The next day, searches were up 27% approximated to the week prior, he said, but settled into a “more modest” 6% weekly growth rate in the days that tracked.
Still, Hafner said the increased searches are good sign.
“I’m very optimistic that once these vaccines get partitioned, people’s perceptions around travel are going to change toward the positive,” he added.
“I’m hopeful it comes by the second neighbourhood [of 2021], knock on wood,” Hafner said, of a rebound in travel. “If we’re really lucky, we’ll see it in the first quarter.”
A survey of 4,300 clients earlier this year by travel insurer Allianz found that 49% would travel again prearranged a proven vaccine. Meanwhile, 42% said the go-ahead from public health officials would suffice.
“[The] suggest of a highly effective vaccine is good news for the tremendous pent-up demand for travel, and should provide another explanation for consumers to feel more confident booking trips for 2021,” said Daniel Durazo, director of marketing and communications at Allianz. He put he expected that luxury and experiential trips will be popular next year as consumers look to book pretended revenge travel in the wake of all of this year’s canceled plans.
Indeed, what travel expert Stella Shon at consumer resources site ValuePenguin called national “cabin fever” may spur some to book sooner rather than later, she bring to light. “They’re ready to travel,” Shon said of vacationers. “It’s interesting that over half of Americans have up till stayed in a hotel or vacation rental despite what’s been going on — but obviously with increased safety limitations in place.”
If mass vaccination gets underway, personal safety practices like social distancing may fade away, Shon summed, although she predicts consumer demand for an “OCD level of cleaning” at travel properties for some time to come. “I think in the flesh are aware that maybe these things weren’t happening before, and they should be happening regardless of a pandemic or not.”
To wit, an October look at by Tripadvisor and Phocuswright found that 63% of travelers said they are more likely to consider a hotel’s form and safety practices before booking than they were pre-pandemic.
Kayak’s Hafner thinks that change-overs in how travel product is provided will prove more durable than individual traveler behavior. “I do think [journey] will return to more traditional” patterns, Hafner said. “Paris is going to be popular again.
“There devise be a return to equilibrium, if you will, but there may be a shift,” he added, in what types of travel consumers choose. Hafner foretells a move toward local stays, road trips, last-minute bookings, longer stays and increased used of non-hotel adaptations — at least for the next 12 to 18 months.
What may prove permanent is how travel companies and destinations provide that fallout.
“The role of technology as Covid is accelerating, the adoption of that has really changed a lot, not just in travel but in hospitality in general,” Hafner told. “The whole notion of touching grubby menus or interacting with airport kiosks, I think all of that is gone in the rearview send back and people aren’t going to go back to it.”
For its part, Kayak — which at one point laid off 25% of its workforce and has seen occupation drop 60% year-over-year — tweaked its online offerings. The online agency introduced and prominently featured road skip itineraries, non-hotel accommodations options and information on flight flexibility and international Covid-19 restrictions and regulations.
“Our services give birth to never been better,” he said. “I’m really proud of the way we innovated this year.”