U.S. Interest Rates High Enough to Tame Inflation, Avoid Recession: Chicago Fed

“We guess that although the majority of the effects on output and inflation have already occurred, the policy tightening that has already been implemented when one pleases exert further restraint in the quarters ahead, amounting to downward pressure of about 3 percentage points on the level of verifiable gross domestic product (GDP) and 2.5 percentage points on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) level,” they noted. “The abatement of inflation cross someones minds without a recession, as real GDP growth remains in positive territory throughout the projection.”