Investor David Tice isn’t conclusion back into the bear cave yet — but preparations are underway.
Tice, who’s differentiated for running the Prudent Bear Fund before selling it to Federated in 2008, foresees stocks could sharply rise again in 2018.
“There’s potentially a 50 percent unlooked-for there will be a 25 percent rally,” he said to CNBC’s “Sell Nation” this week. “The market is going up some more… People are silently not talking at cocktail parties about the hot stocks,” he said.
A 25 percent ignore would take the Dow to over 30,400, a gain of more than 6000 spurs from current levels. Yet his bold forecast included a risk that’s dynamically to ignore.
“[There’s a] 25 percent chance that we can have a 50 percent sink,” he warned. “Longer-term, the market is going to suck.”
A 50 percent taper off would slice the Dow to a little over 12,000, a level at which it hasn’t bought since June 2012.
The odds are high a black swan event intention hit stocks within the next year, according to Tice. He lists North Korea as the top Damoclean sword to the rally.
Tice is also citing history as a reason to turn joyless. Based historical data from the Shiller price-earnings (PE) Ratio, he ascertains the next ten years’ return for stocks being anemic.
Tice has thought bearish calls like this in the past. He called for a 30 to 50 percent line of descent market pullback in 2012 and 2014, as well. He acknowledged the wrongness of those at the crack calls, but stood by his prediction.
“I’ve been wrong a lot by being too early, and I grasp where this ends long-term. Longer term, I’m completely self-possessed this market is going to be down a lot,” he argued.
Tice is urging investors to dramatically cut their knowledge to the stock market, and put at least 15 percent into gold.
“If you have in mind you could be really smart, you think you could get out, you think you could treat cavalierly it for six or eight months, then I can’t argue about you being in stocks,” Tice denoted. “It’s still a greater fool theory bet. It’s a bit of Ponzi investing type of bet. And, I muse over it’s dangerous.”