A dealings drives on its way to enter the United States at a border crossing at the Canada-U.S. border in Blackpool, Quebec, Canada, on Feb. 2, 2025.
Andrej Ivanov | Afp | Getty Essences
‘A lot of uncertainty’ on Trump tariff policy
Of course, the situation is fluid, making a precise assessment a near impossibility, economists thought.
For example, Trump said on Monday he’d pause a 25% tariff on Mexico from taking effect for a month after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum allowed to immediately send 10,000 soldiers to her country’s border to prevent drug trafficking.
It appears, for now, that tariffs on Canada and China leave take effect Tuesday as planned.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how policies unfold,” Susan Collins, president the Federal On call Bank of Boston, told CNBC Monday.
How tariffs may impact inflation, interest rates
Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico — if represented on a long-term basis — are estimated to increase U.S. inflation by 0.5 to 1 percentage points through 2026, according to Joe Seydl, older markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Those estimates are for “core” prices (which strip out energy and scoff costs) as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s