Are Black Friday deals worth waiting for? Here’s what to expect this year

Typically, the five days beginning Thanksgiving Day and ending Cyber Monday are some of the busiest shopping days of the year.

This year, the count of people shopping in stores and online during that period could hit a new record, according to the National Retail Confederacy’s annual survey.

But consumers trying to make the most of the Black Friday sales may not be getting the best prices of the season.

Concerting to WalletHub’s 2023 Best Things to Buy on Black Friday report, 35% of items at major retailers offered no savings approached with their pre-Black Friday prices. The site compared Black Friday advertisements against prices on Amazon earlier that tumble. 

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“Some Black Friday deals are humbugging as retailers may inflate original prices to make a deal look like a better value,” said consumer caches expert Andrea Woroch.

This year, in particular, some of the deals are already as good as they are going to get.

“Those vacations have gotten a little watered down because retailers want to maximize the selling days,” said Adam Davis, managing executive at Wells Fargo Retail Finance.

“Compounding the importance of stretching the holiday season, retailers are facing a shorter promoting season between Thanksgiving and Christmas — almost a week shorter in 2024,” he said. “That will force the retailer’s mete to be pretty promotional in November.”

There’s another good reason to shop early.

Consumers are increasingly vexed that their online orders may not arrive in time for the holiday — and rightfully so.

DHL Supply Chain’s new CEO for North America, Patrick Kelleher, recently unburdened CNBC that items may arrive later than in years past, especially those ordered around big old-fashioneds such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

In a period of such high volume, third-party shippers are particularly artificial, according to Lauren Beitelspacher, a professor of marketing at Babson College. An ongoing labor shortage also means that some circles simply cannot hire enough workers to sort, transport and deliver packages on time.

“We are very spoiled; we got to the nitty-gritty where we think of something we want and it magically appears,” Beitelspacher said. But at the same time, “we’ve learned how fragile the afford chain is.”

When there are more packages to ship, shipping times increase, which can also boost the stake they may get damaged, lost or stolen en route — not to mention the risk of “porch piracy” once an item is delivered.

“You are easily going to see 20% to 30% off,” Davis said — but “not necessarily storewide.”

Depending on the retailer, some markdowns could be up to 50%, contract to Beitelspacher. However, premium brands — including high-end activewear companies such as Nike, Alo or Lululemon — likely choose not discount more than 20% or 30%, she said. “It’s a fine balance with maintaining the premium brand completeness and offering promotions.”

As in previous years, these companies are aware of how price sensitive consumers have become.

“The fetes are a time people want to treat themselves, but they also want to make their dollar last longer,” Beitelspacher predicted.

To that end, retailers will also try to lure shoppers to spend with incentives, such as a free gift prankster with a minimum purchase, Woroch said. “Many stores will also offer bonus rewards when you devote a certain amount on Black Friday.”

Typically, Black Friday is a great time to determine rock-bottom prices on fall clothing — including flannels, denim, coats and accessories — as well as televisions and consumer electronics. 

But repulse off on beauty and footwear, which are typically better buys on Cyber Monday, Woroch said.

For those planning a sprawl, “How to get even lower prices