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Trading volume is up from 2020’s breakneck pace as retail investors jump in

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NYSE

Stock trading volumes are through the roof. 

It’s not just equity prices that are bumping new highs in 2021. Trading volumes for stocks and options are at records as well. 

“For trading volumes, the new year starts at a in harmony, unprecedented strong & record pace,” according to Rich Repetto, who tracks trading volumes at Piper Sandler.

Much of it is being driven by retail investors, who are be prolonged the high level of engagement that began in 2020. The increased volumes are pushing electronic brokers like Interactive Intermediaries and Charles Schwab to new highs, along with exchanges like ICE and Nasdaq. 

When will the mania for stock and choice trading ease? “Everybody has said it’s going to subside, but they have been saying that for six months,” translated Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick.

Volumes are way up: Is it all retail?

Stock volumes exploded in 2020, and have increased monotonous more in the early days of 2021:

Equities: Average daily volume

  • 2019:             7 billion
  • 2020:            10.9 billion
  • 2021 so far:  14.7 billion

Source:  Piper Sandler

Year over year, January aggregates are up 92%, and from December, they are up 33%.

What accounts for these rises? Repetto believes the majority of the gains are due to enlarged retail participation, for several reasons:

  1. Record volume on the Trade Reporting Facility. The TRF is the “tape” that reports exchanges not done on the exchanges. It includes retail trades that are routed to market makers, as well as dark pools. The immense majority of retail trades (90%) are reported to the facility. TRF volume this month reached a record 48.6% of all craft. Repetto believes most of this is due to an increase in retail trading.
  2. Trades at retail brokers are way up. The average daily sum total of the largest e-brokers in December was 6.6 million shares, a record. In January, average daily trades are at 8.1 million, a 23% further.
  3. Options trading is way up. December saw an average of 32.7 million contracts trade on all the equity option exchanges, also a log. In January, 39.8 million contracts a day are trading. Repetto also cites data from Cboe indicating barter in single contract options have doubled in market share (4% to 8%) and tripled in volume in contracts per day.

“You don’t see an university buying one contract,” Repetto said.

Put it all together, Repetto said, and the evidence points to increased retail trading as the rudimentary culprit in the overall increase in volume.

What is retail buying?

While attention focuses on big names like Tesla as a objective of retail interest, Sosnick believes that much of the real volume increase is coming from obscure pinpoints on the low end of the trading universe.

“There is a lot of volume in low-priced stocks, $2 or $3 obscure stocks where volumes include exploded.  That tells me people are chasing momentum. They move because they start moving. People start talking around them [in chat rooms] and they move,” he said.

As for options trading, Sosnick notes that the same marvel — buying out-of-the-money call options that was so popular in 2020 — continues. 

“There is still a phenomenal interest in selections, particularly short-dated calls,” he said. “Those are the options with the longest odds against the buyer because they decadence so rapidly, but they keep working as long as markets and individual stocks keep going up.”

Is there any sign of retail purchasers getting more cautious? Interactive Brokers CEO Thomas Peterffy told CNBC last month that his patients at that time were net short the market.

“Our clients always make money when the markets go up and lose readies when the market goes down, but for the past five days or so, it’s been the other way around,” he said in the Dec. 30 talk with.

It’s not clear if that trend is ongoing, particularly since the markets have continued to move into record domain.

“The two natural options trades are call writers [sellers] and put buyers because that’s the way of insuring your portfolio,” Sosnick maintained. “That has been turned on its head. Put buyers still exist, but they are being swamped by the people buying standing bies.”

When will this end? Sosnick doesn’t know, but looks for signs in another very speculative venture. “While I not at any time want to dismiss retail investors, there is a level of speculation that seems unsustainable,” he said. “When I look at bitcoin potentially slip over, that doesn’t bode well because I consider that the bellwether for speculative fervor.”

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