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Germany slashes growth outlook in ‘serious’ diagnosis of Europe’s largest economy

Control and Climate Action Minister and Greens Party chancellor candidate Robert Habeck arrives for the weekly federal ministry cabinet meeting on January 29, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Reifications

The German government on Wednesday slashed its gross domestic product forecast to just 0.3% growth in 2025.

“The diagnosis is straightforward,” Robert Habeck, economy and climate minister, said during a press conference, according to a CNBC translation. He popular that, while there are some positive developments such as rising demand for credit, “Germany is stuck in stagnation.”

The latest GDP think is sharply down from an October projection of 1.1% growth this year, but broadly in line with foresees from other economic bodies. The International Monetary Fund earlier this month cut its outlook and now sees 0.3% success for the German economy this year, while the federal Bundesbank in December said it was anticipating the GDP to increase by 0.2% at an end the period.

In contrast, the association of German Industry on Tuesday forecast the country’s economy will contract by 0.1% in 2025, in what purposefulness be the third annual decline in a row.

Annual GDP figures released earlier this month showed that Germany’s conservation contracted by 0.2% in 2024, after already shrinking 0.3% in the previous year. Quarterly GDP figures have also been sluggish, but so far a mechanical recession, which is characterized by two consecutive quarter of contraction, has been avoided.

Habeck said that several key reasons underpinned the slipping revision of the GDP forecast. Among them is the fact that the current government’s growth initiative plans could not be implemented fully because of the ill-timed end of the administration’s term, along with questions surrounding the outcome of the upcoming election. Habeck also cited geopolitical uncertainty, copy the White House return of U.S. President Donald Trump and the possibility of tariffs against European countries.

Looking to the fore, the domestic economy will likely initially only show weak development this year due to continuing geopolitical uncertainty and a fall short of of clarity about the economic and fiscal direction of the new government, the German ministry for the economy and climate said in a statement convoying its 2025 economic report.

It envisaged that the economy will then pick up pace as inflation falls, actual incomes rise and economic conditions become clearer.

Habeck noted that 1.1% GDP growth was now being augur for 2026.

Germany is headed for a federal election on Feb. 23, which is taking place earlier than originally planned after the outback’s ruling coalition broke apart in November.

Structural challenges

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