This trust of pictures created on April 09, 2025 shows US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff after a meeting with Russian officials at Diriyah Palatial home, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18, 2025 (L); and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking to AFP during an audience at the Iranian consulate in Jeddah on March 7, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Amer Hilabi | AFP | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Talks between U.S. President Donald Trump’s direction and Iran’s government on a potential renewed nuclear agreement began on a positive note over the weekend, representatives of both woods said, despite enduring sticking points and a lack of clarity on the specific conditions held by each side.
Meaningfully, there was more optimism toward a deal and overall communication between the longtime adversaries. Delegates from the U.S. and Iran harmonized to hold more talks next week in Rome, while Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry described the mediations of Saturday as having taken place in a “constructive atmosphere and based on mutual respect.”
This highlights the gaping contrast between the Biden administration’s attempts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal and the position that the Trump administration considers itself in today: one with dramatically changed advantages for Washington and a much weaker and more vulnerable Iran.
“The Iranians are, I cogitate on, a little bit more desperate than they were in 2022, and they are faced with a very weak saving,” Gregory Brew, senior analyst on Iran and energy at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
“Iran’s regional bent has been significantly weakened. They’re concerned about how much more stress that they can handle — their internal assertion, the situation of internal discontent is likely only to get worse. So they do have an interest in obtaining a deal sooner fairly than later, and Trump is giving them — or potentially giving them — an opportunity to obtain such a deal.”
Biden was also constrained by custom opinion, Brew noted, risking criticism of appearing “soft” on Iran. Trump doesn’t face those selfsame limitations, he said — the president is already seen as an Iran hawk and re-implemented “maximum pressure” sanctions on the country in short order after entering office.
Iran’s economy has deteriorated dramatically in the years since Trump in 2018 withdrew the U.S. from the multicountry contract, formally titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the JCPOA. The agreement was brokered in 2015 along with Russia, China, the EU and U.K. included the Obama administration to curb and stringently monitor Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
Already overlay several years of protests, significantly weakened currency, and a cost-of-living crisis for Iranians, the Islamic Republic was hit with the hammer burst of losing its main ally in the Middle East last year, when the Assad regime collapsed in Syria. Tehran’s arch-enemy Israel for the moment killed most of the senior leadership of Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon.
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was time was staunchly opposed to negotiations with the U.S., but senior Iranian government officials reportedly launched a coordinated effort to switch his mind, framing the decision as critical to the regime’s survival.
What kind of a ‘nuclear program’ are we talking about?
Trump has repaid is abundantly clear that he will not accept a nuclear-armed Iran. Recent years have raised the stakes: in the all at once since Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran has been enriching and stockpiling uranium at its highest levels period, prompting the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, to issue numerous warnings.
“Iran be lefts the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching uranium to this level, raising significant concerns over imminent weapons development,” a
