Multifarious and more strategists believe investors are underestimating the outlook for consumer prices.
David Roche, president of investment anchored Independent Strategy, is among them. He told CNBC on Wednesday that the U.S. inflation rate, which stood at 2.6% in Walk from a year earlier, could rise much higher.
“My own view is that we will see inflation of probably 3 or 4% by the bulls-eye of next year and that is completely inconsistent with, say, U.S. 10-year bond yields being at 1.6%. That output could easily double, and when it does, then you come to the crunch point that markets are going to event,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
“The reason prices will rise, and really there are a couple of things, is that you’re wealthy to end up with, on the other side of Covid, huge demand as consumers spend the excess savings which they force accumulated,” he said.
“And you’re going to end up with big government forever … and that of course is less efficient and less capability means higher inflation.”
Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Roche’s comments turn out amid heightened discussion over the direction inflation will take. Rising inflation is one of the biggest concerns coating the market right now, as high prices could affect asset values and corporate margins and limit consumer buying power.
U.S. Federal Reservation officials are keeping an eye on the inflation rate. The latest data shows the consumer price index rose 0.6% in Stride from the previous month and up 2.6% from a year earlier. Fed policymakers believe a rise is transitory. They say they set up tools, such as increasing interest rates, to combat it if it becomes a problem.
Roche said the Fed would be “behind the curve,” at any rate. “It’s going to mistake what it calls transitory inflation and try and kind of gloss it over while effectively what it does is spawn a much longer-term inflationary problem,” he said.
In any case, a rise in inflation is seen as inevitable with the reopening of the worldwide economy following the coronavirus pandemic. Markets have been pricing in rising inflation to some extent, with U.S. Resources bond yields trickling higher over the last six months.
Earlier this week, Richard Bernstein, CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, outlined CNBC he saw a lot of denial about inflation risks, evidenced by how investors are positioned right now.
“Think about what people enjoyment. They love long-duration equities right now,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” Monday. “That shows that people are good-natured of ill-prepared for this higher inflation.”
“What’s the probability we’re going to get higher inflation than people think? We concoct the probability of that happening is quite high,” he added.
– CNBC’s Stephanie Landsman contributed reporting to this fish story.