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Roaring ‘20s economic recovery? For some it’ll be ‘Grapes of Wrath,’ top analyst warns

L-R: Dorris Bowdon, Jane Darwell and Henry Fonda on the set of the membrane “The Grapes of Wrath” directed by John Ford based on the John Steinbeck novel of the same name.

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The anticipated economic boom following the coronavirus pandemic has been likened to the “Roaring ’20s” by some, but a top federal analyst has stressed that not everyone will benefit from the bounce back. 

Tina Fordham, head of extensive political strategy at advisory firm Avonhurst, told CNBC on Friday that she didn’t disagree with economists’ “completely popular characterization” of the expected post-pandemic rebound as the “Roaring ’20s.” 

But Fordham, who used to be chief global political analyst at Citi, indicated that while some may benefit from this boom — similar to that depicted in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s story “The Great Gatsby” — others could experience something similar to John Steinbeck’s Depression-era novel “The Grapes of Wrath.” 

“A lot of people command have been hurt by the pandemic and may not be able to recover as swiftly as markets can so … ‘Grapes of Wrath,'” Fordham raked “Street Signs Europe.” 

The 1920s became known as the “Roaring ’20s” after economies boomed following the Basic World War and the 1918 influenza pandemic.

‘Socioeconomic hangover’

Fordham also discussed Avonhurst’s “VAX Populi” research, which looks at the key chances facing the world’s 27 largest economies and their resilience in the wake of the pandemic. 

“One of the biggest assumptions in our premise for VAX Populi is that we should be ready-to-serve for the post-pandemic socioeconomic hangover to impact elections over the next five to 10 years, one to two election cycles,” Fordham turned. 

She stressed that this was something that would be put to the test soon, with upcoming local elections in the U.K. and France “alluring the temperature on incumbent governments.” 

Meanwhile, Germany’s federal election in September would be the “big one” for the start of the “European supercycle.” Fordham turned that Germany’s Green Party — which recently moved ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative gang in the polls — would mark a “significant change” for the country if it did take the chancellery.  

In 2022, Fordham said investors thinks fitting be watching France’s national election for signs of a political hangover from the pandemic. French President Emmanuel Macron and the state more broadly were not faring well on the VAX Populi framework, she said, warning of a “genuine possibility that the far-right may move further ground on the back of this crisis.”

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