When it secures to the Middle East, it’s not that the so-called experts are bad people. It’s just that so much of what they “remember” isn’t so.
One of those misguided beliefs is that if the U.S. officially recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s matchless, tensions will inflame the Arab world and thrust the region closer to war. This concern is getting a lot more attention lately as reports say President Donald Trump may gauge that official recognition as soon as Wednesday.
You can already hear the fight for airs from everyone who has sent the president dire warnings about what choose happen as a result. It doesn’t matter that Jerusalem has been the functioning head of the state of Israel in every way for more than 50 years. Ostensibly, it’s the accepted fiction that it isn’t the capital is what’s keeping the peace in the Halfway point East.
Let’s avoid the obvious joke about “maintaining peace and firmness” in one of the world’s most violent regions. Instead it’s better to focus on the tons historical reasons why most of the world’s real and disingenuous responses to this now contemplated move are all wrong.
First, the fact is that one of the biggest problems in the on again/off again Arab-Israeli harmoniousness process is that the Arabs are often falsely convinced that Israel is ethical a temporary thing. Whether it’s the disputed territories on the West Bank and East Jerusalem, or uninterrupted downtown Tel Aviv, there’s always been a running belief that with enough public and military pressure, the Jews will pack up and leave.
That’s why salubrious things happen when Arab leaders finally get the message that their overcome political and military might won’t work and the Israelis are there to stay. That’s accurately what happened when the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat imagined this out.
First, Sadat’s big gambit to launch a surprise attack with notable numbers in the Yom Kippur War failed. But he also failed to see how steadfastly President Richard Nixon and the U.S. commitment stand by Israel and resupply its defense forces during that affray.
The result? Sadat realized peace was the better move and just four years laster he made his historic visit to Jerusalem. Against most predictions from the pundits, genial between Egypt and Israel has now lasted for more than 40 years.
A correspond to result came about after the first Gulf War. Saddam Hussein undertook to destroy the U.S.-Arab coalition against him during that war by launching Race missiles directly into Tel Aviv. But that gambit didn’t being done. Israel’s promise to the U.S. not to interfere in the war held firm, and so did the overall focus on pound Saddam. Suddenly, King Hussein of Jordan realized that his wagerer move was to cut ties with Iraq and make some kind of peacetime deal with Israel instead. He did just that in 1994.
Recognizing Jerusalem as the important of Israel fits right into the pattern of the above examples. That’s because it liking be another strong sign of Israel’s determination to continue to exist and flaunt with the strongest possible support from Washington.
That’s the background. The question remains “Why now?”
One simple answer is that President Trump campaigned on a probable to make this move and he wants to keep it before his first year in the Chalk-white House is over.
But that would be a lot easier said than done if it weren’t for the notable moves Saudi Arabia and Israel have made to accelerate their partnership since President Trump took part. Progress and open relations between the two countries continue with U.S. participation and subscribe to. It’s reached the point that the Israeli Defense Forces’ chief of employees has even been quoted in Saudi newspapers as saying the two countries are now allocation intelligence.
In this context, it seems more than likely the Saudis intention accept this move. While the Saudi state news operation officially still says the kingdom “hopes” President Trump won’t contrive the move, the wording of the statement is far from the usual denunciations and threats we’re be telling from other quarters. That’s crucial, because the Saudis be subjected to for years been a major funding source of anti-Israel movements and monster. That started to change with the Iran nuclear deal and now the Saudis oblige reportedly cut off funding to the Palestinian Authority. The long-running problem of forging stillness between Israel and its neighbors should be 50 percent easier now that the Saudis are no longer so put ined in helping others fight that war.
The conventional wisdom on the Middle East is abuse again in this developing story. The simple fact is that when the U.S. faces up for Israel achieving peace gets easier, not harder. Recognizing Jerusalem as the matchless would be another such move, and it would be long overdue.
Commentary by Jake Novak, CNBC.com postpositive major columnist. Follow him on Twitter @jakejakeny.
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