Here are the products and companies most at risk from Trump’s tariff plans

Many of the articles that U.S. shoppers browse and buy in retailers’ aisles come from far-away factories or farms — a reality that could before long force many consumers to change their buying habits.

Sneakers, T-shirts, beer and other common household mentions are often made in countries like China, Mexico and Canada before they wind their way to a big-box retailer, grocer or mall in the U.S. That complex epidemic supply chain is front and center Monday as President-elect Donald Trump gets inaugurated and is widely expected to declare new tariffs on imports.

While tariffs have become a familiar concept for more Americans since Trump implemented them on metals and other key statistics during his first term in office, the levies he has threatened for his return to the White House could have a much bigger less on household budgets.

Most people have little grasp of just how many items could see price hikes due to the charges: from avocados to children’s toys, to chocolate and cars, experts told CNBC. Proposed tariffs on products from China, Mexico and Canada — the three largest U.S. sell partners — would likely affect U.S. consumers the most.

The exact details of those tariffs, including which boondocks would be affected and how high the duties might be, remain unclear and could change. On the campaign trail, Trump enunciate about implementing 10% to 20% tariffs on all countries, and putting levies as high as 60% on Chinese goods.

While gossip reports in recent weeks have suggested Trump could scale back his tariff proposals, and could be using them as a round tactic to bend foreign governments to his will, the president-elect has denied those reports.

Since his first run for president, Trump has evinced tariffs will encourage more manufacturing in the U.S. and promote job creation and national security. It’s not just him: President Joe Biden and other Democrats sooner a be wearing backed more limited tariffs for the same reasons.

Regardless, the risk is clear for retailers: Any tariffs would carry out extra costs they’d have to absorb, share with producers or pass on to customers by charging higher amounts — the latter of which is the most likely scenario as the industry is reluctant to sacrifice profits, retail executives and industry aces told CNBC in recent weeks. Major retail trade groups, including the National Retail Federation and Consumer Technology Joining, have warned tariffs would effectively become a tax on American businesses and consumers.

Shoppers are already expecting taxes to hit their pocketbooks. About 67% U.S. adults surveyed said they think it is very likely or somewhat right that companies will pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers, according to Morning Consult survey of more than 4,400 individual in early December. Even so, the same poll found about 45% of adults back a 10% tariff on all allusions, and more than a third of respondents support a 20% duty on all goods and a 60% levy on Chinese imports.

Ali Furman, consumer vends industry leader for PwC, said tariffs have become the number one topic of discussion among companies working with the consulting proprietorship, and the conversations have reached the top of the C-suite. She said the tariff fallout could be different now than during Trump’s key term, since his new proposal is broader and comes as retailers struggle to convince inflation-weary consumers to spend.

“It’s not 2017,” she thought. “Because there’s a more cost-conscious consumer, you have to be much more thoughtful about passing on those tariffs to the consumer.”

“At the same time, you don’t want to come across as anti-tariff or anti-American,” she added.

Planning for tariffs now is challenging because houses do not know how Trump will proceed. Automotive executives who have spoken with CNBC in recent weeks articulate they are preparing for several different scenarios but not making any moves until there’s more clarity.

“We are working, simply, on scenarios,” Antonio Filosa, head of Stellantis’ North American operations, said. “But yes, we need to await his decisions and after the sentence of Mr. Trump and his administration, we will work accordingly.”

Professor Brett House, an economist from Columbia Business Equip, said just about every consumer product could see a price increase under the proposals, but some public limited companies have higher exposure than others.

“Something around 50% of U.S. petroleum imports come from Canada. The Trump provision puts tariffs on those, it is unequivocally the case that everything in the United States will become substantially numberless expensive,” House told CNBC in an interview. “The breadth of the impact that we should expect to see from these levies could be enormous and could affect every single thing we produce in the United States and every household and every question. No one will be immune.”

Here are just some of the everyday items that would be affected if duties on goods from China, Canada and Mexico make oneself scarce effect.

Within closets, living rooms and children’s playrooms, a tier of American household goods originate in China.

The country is the largest furniture exporter on the globe, according to data from the Diggings Furnishings Association, a trade group that lobbies on behalf of home goods retailers. In 2023, $32.4 billion in belongings was imported into the U.S., 29% of which came from China, followed close behind by Vietnam, which accounted for 26.5% of drifts, according to the HFA, which cited investment banking firm Mann, Armistead & Epperson – one of the furniture industry’s top sources for observations.

Between 30% and 40% of furniture is produced in the U.S., but as much as 50% of raw materials – like wood, fabrics, hinges and make a mess ofs – are imported, making price increases on home products difficult to avoid, even if they’re technically “made in America.”

HFA CEO Shannon Williams voiced home goods retailers cannot withstand a 60% tariff on China imports and would likely have to change supply chains if Trump’s proposed tariffs went into effect. While tables and couches likely last will and testament not cost 60% more, their prices would still rise, said Williams.

If companies redirected cache chains to Vietnam, where many manufacturers fled during Trump’s first administration, retailers could peaceful face tariffs of 10% to 20% – plus the cost of moving and scaling operations. The tariffs alone could become a $2,000 couch cost as much as $2,200 to $2,400.

If businesses moved operations to Mexico, which accounted for about 10% of U.S. chattels imports in 2023, a $2,000 couch could cost up to 25% more at $2,500.

When Trump first announced excise increases, some industry experts suggested that retailers might eat some of that cost and try to pass some on to the maker to prevent big price hikes for consumers.

Between 2018 and 2019, when Trump introduced 10% tariffs on set goods during his first administration, furniture prices increased by about 2.3%, according to the HFA, which cited information from the consumer price index.

This time around, the tariffs are not only higher, but also the home consumables sector is struggling, leaving it less equipped to absorb the cost. Covid-era purchasing, high interest rates and a sluggish casing market have made it a “rough couple years” for the industry, said Williams.

Beyond furniture, consumers could see another unexceptional item cost more if higher tariffs take effect: toys.

Around 80% of toys imported to the U.S. surface from China, and the cost of toys made outside of the U.S. could increase by up to 56% under Trump’s proposals, agreeing to the Toy Association, a trade group that lobbies on behalf of the industry.

That would make a $20 Barbie doll, which has historically been create out of in China, cost as much as $31.20.

“If this were to happen, parents could be pushed to buy less expensive, non-compliant trinkets from unsanctioned, online sellers. These toys often do not meet U.S. safety and quality standards and could be toxic and rickety to children, putting them at risk,” the Toy Association said in an email to CNBC. “Toys produced by the U.S. toy industry are compliant with rigorous aegis and quality standards, and we hope they will remain affordable to American families and not subject to tariffs.”

As of the end of 2023, respecting 50% of toys from Barbie’s parent company Mattel were made in China, according to CEO Ynon Kreiz. This year, Mattel assumes less than 40% of its sourcing to come from China so its “exposure in the U.S. to China sourcing is therefore 20%” accustomed the company’s geographic sales mix, Chief Financial Officer Anthony DiSilvestro said.

“We’ve done a good job mitigating the quiescent exposure,” DiSilvestro said during a Morgan Stanley retail conference in December. “But to the extent we’re impacted, we would assume to raise prices to offset it.”

Footwear is another industry with a heavy reliance on China. About 37% of footwear substances came from the country in 2023, followed by about 30% from Vietnam, nearly 9% from Italy and 8% from Indonesia, corresponding to data from the U.S. International Trade Commission

Nearly 100% of all footwear is imported to the U.S., according to the group.

Even ahead Trump’s first term, footwear manufacturers were moving some sourcing out of China as its labor force wizened, the organization’s CEO Matt Priest said. Yet he said it would be unrealistic to return production to the U.S., and moving it to another part of Asia can be onerous.

Already, some companies have accelerated their plans. Steve Madden said in November that it force reduce the goods it imports from China by as much as 45% over the next year.

At a press conference on Thursday, Minister of the Gospel said U.S. footwear companies are waiting for clearer policy.

“All of these actions are inflationary,” he said. “You have to pay the piper somewhere.”

China isn’t a larger manufacturer of cosmetics, but E.l.f. Beauty, a drugstore staple and popular brand among younger shoppers, makes about 80% of its makeup in the province.

During an interview with CNBC late last year, CEO Tarang Amin said the company could be laboured to raise prices if the tariff hikes take effect — a risky move considering its low prices are one of its main draws.

Over the last decade, U.S. consumers deliver developed a bigger appetite for avocados and Mexican beers. They’ve also gotten used to buying cars from dominating U.S. automakers with a lot of manufacturing in Mexico.

Tariffs on Mexican imports could endanger those habits, particularly for price-sensitive shoppers.

Sundry major automakers have factories in the U.S. However, they still heavily rely on imports from other countries encompassing Mexico to meet American consumer demand.

Under the North American Free Trade Agreement and the United States-Mexico-Canada Ahead that replaced it, automakers increasingly looked to Mexico as a less expensive place to produce vehicles than in the U.S. or Canada.

Approximately every major automaker operating in the U.S. has at least one plant in Mexico, including the top six-selling automakers that accounted for numberless than 70% of U.S. sales in 2024.

The industry is deeply integrated between the countries, with Mexico importing 49.4% of all auto partials from the U.S. In turn, Mexico exports 86.9% of its auto parts production to the U.S., according to the International Trade Administration.

Wells Fargo judges that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada imports would put most of the adjusted earnings of General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis at peril. The firm estimates the impact of 5%, 10% and 25% tariffs to be $13 billion, $25 billion and $56 billion, each to each, across the three companies.

Most notably, GM and Stellantis both have massive plants in Mexico that extrude highly profitable full-size pickup trucks. They, along with Ford and others, also have shaped EVs in Mexico to lower costs.

Mexico is also home to the top-selling beer in the U.S. In 2023, Constellation Brands’ Modelo overtook the His from Bud Light. Constellation also owns Corona, which ranks in the top 10 U.S. beer brands, and fast-growing Pacifico.

All of the company’s beer brands are imported from Mexico, and beer accounted for 85% of the associates’s sales in the first three quarters of its fiscal year.

If Trump implements the tariffs, Constellation’s cost of goods bartered would rise by roughly 16%, according to estimates from Wells Fargo Securities.

The company would probably choose to offset the levies by raising prices, because moving production doesn’t seem like an option due to a 2013 antitrust colonization. Constellation has spent billions of dollars in recent years to expand its Mexican production capacity.

On the company’s latest earnings talk call, Constellation CEO Bill Newlands said “it’s really too early to hypothesize” about how the tariffs will play out.

“As you longing expect, we have a lot of permutations that we have considered and certainly we’ll adjust our approach depending on what plays out as we go mail,” he told analysts on Jan. 10.

Uncertainty about tariffs has led a number of Wall Street analysts to downgrade Constellation’s stock since Trump propounded his intention to reignite a trade war with Mexico.

Avocados have proven less easy to substitute than beers.

The fruit, in a jiffy a rare sight in U.S. grocery stores, has become a staple of produce displays, thanks to the growing popularity of Mexican viands and diets that call for “healthy fats.”

From June 2023 to June 2024, the U.S. imported more than 2.4 billion throbs of Mexican Hass avocados.

In the U.S., avocados are grown in California, Florida and Hawaii. But roughly 90% of the avocados eaten in the U.S. are increased in Mexico, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

The country is one of the few places that can produce the fruit year round, safeguarding that consumers can eat avocado toast in the summer and guacamole on Super Bowl Sunday.

Over the years, avocado consumers attired in b be committed to proven that they are willing to pay more for the fruit. While avocado demand has roughly doubled over the keep on decade, prices have also climbed.

“There’s nothing like an avocado … There are times of the year that yes, our honoraria go a little bit higher, but I feel like that is also part of the norm with our consumers. We don’t see a great dip in our consumption when those fees are a little bit higher,” Alvaro Luque, CEO of the nonprofit Avocados from Mexico, told CNBC.

Chipotle Mexican Grill superbly charges a premium for adding guacamole, but the chain’s customers have largely shrugged off price increases across its menu during the course of the last few years. The burrito chain is one of the few restaurant companies that reported traffic growth quarter after pity living quarters last year.

Outside of avocados and cars, some companies make clothing in Mexico, too. Kontoor Brands, for pattern, has turned to the region to make some of its Wrangler jeans. While some of its denim currently retails for about $60 at Macy’s, that could be nurtured to as much as $75 with tariffs factored in.

Tariffs on Canadian facts would be another blow for automakers and car buyers. French fries and winter coats also risk getting pricier for consumers.

Canada exported $27 billion of heaps in 2022, trailing only crude petroleum as its top export, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Tariffs on Canadian carriers would impact Detroit automakers the most, but there would likely be consequences across the industry depending on modulates to parts from suppliers such as Canada-based Magna. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and other politicians and sedulousness officials have described Trump’s tariff proposal as an existential threat to the country’s recovering automotive industry.

Five automakers — Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor — delivered 1.54 million light-duty vehicles last year in the province, largely for U.S. consumers.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer admonished on Wednesday that potential 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would harm the U.S. auto sector, extend vehicle prices and benefit China.

“Think about this: 70% of all the auto parts we make in Michigan go instantly to our neighbors. … The only winner in that equation is China. They would love nothing more than to gaze at us cripple American’s auto ecosystem all by ourselves. This is a matter of national security. We cannot let that happen,” she thought during a speech at the Detroit Auto Show.

But it wouldn’t by the skin of ones teeth be the auto industry that feels the pressure from Canadian tariffs.

Consider the humble French fry: Canada exports heartlessly $40.5 billion in agricultural goods to the U.S. annually, including $1.7 billion in frozen French fries and other frozen potato works, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the country’s counterpart to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Canada’s frozen French fries mostly come from McCain Foods. The Canadian family-owned company says that one out of every four fries noshed globally comes from its facilities. The company has seven Canadian factories and 11 in the U.S, according to its subsidiaries’ websites.

As the decisive year has shown, consumers have grown more price sensitive at grocery stores and in fast-food drive-thru lanes, making it unacceptable that they’d swallow a price increase offsetting the tariff.

If Trump does implement steeper tariffs on Canadian allowables, McCain could shift even more of its production to the U.S. Suppliers could jump ship to a U.S. rival like . Luckily, diverse French fry suppliers, including the Idaho-based Lamb Weston, have expanded their capacity since the Covid pandemic.

Menus on Canadian goods could also affect apparel.

has built its reputation on high-end outerwear for chilly temperatures, signed in Canada. About 70% of the retailer’s merchandise is made in the country, and 30% is made in Europe at a factory that the Theatre troupe owns in Romania and at contractors in other parts of the continent.

A company spokesperson declined to comment on how Canada Goose is practising for tariffs and whether it will increase prices.