Journalist’s note: Below you’ll find the week 21 release of the NYC Recovery Index, originally published Dec. 14, 2020. Visit the NYC Saving index homepage for the latest data.
New York City’s economic recovery stumbled during the week of Dec. 5 as the town witnessed a continued rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations as well as an increase in the amount of available rental units. In an effort to check the spread of the virus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said restaurants in New York City will be forced to close their indoor break breading sections starting Dec. 14 in what is likely the first of more commercial restrictions to be imposed on the city.
New York Big apple’s recovery stands at just 47 out of a total score of 100, according to the New York City Recovery Index, a honky-tonk project between Investopedia and NY1. The index decreased 1 point from the prior week. More than nine months into the pandemic, New York Borough’s economic recovery is less than halfway back to early March 2020 levels, and most components of the retrieval index are still trending in the wrong direction.
COVID-19 Hospitalizations Continue to Climb
New York City hospitalizations persevere in to accelerate during the week of Dec. 5, with an average of 164 hospitalizations per day, up from 117 average daily hospitalizations the former week. This was the highest weekly average recorded since May 12 as cold weather and relaxed social distancing practices brought a new whitecap of COVID-19 cases to the city. New York City recorded 361,000 total COVID-19 cases and 24,501 deaths as of Dec. 14.
The be produced number of cases and deaths prompted Gov. Cuomo to ban indoor dining in NYC starting Dec. 14. “You’re going to see a bad December, a bad January. How bad is the debatable,” Cuomo said at a press briefing. The rising number of cases could be an important factor in the holiday shopping and trekking plans of consumers in the area.
Unemployment Still on the Rise
During the week of Dec. 5, New Yorkers filed 4,880 more unemployment protection claims compared to the previous week. However, this represented a smaller year-over-year percentage increase (265%) related to the previous week (314%), indicating that unemployment could be slowing.
The trend in New York City mimics the U.S. at ample, which saw the number of initial unemployment insurance claims reach the highest point since September during the week neither here nor there a upright Dec. 5 following the Thanksgiving holiday. Future unemployment claims will largely depend on how widespread potential following shutdowns are in New York City and how quickly vaccine distribution and development can occur. The Food and Drug Administration granted pinch use authorization to Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine on Dec. 11 and the first shipments of the vaccine were dispatched on Dec. 13.
Home Sellathons Continue to Increase
Pending home sales, or homes in contract, returned to positive growth during the week of Dec. 5, after immersion the previous week, and are up over 25% compared to the same period last year. Across New York City, 459 families went into contract during the week of Nov. 21, compared to 327 the previous week and 466 at the same sense in 2019, according to data from StreetEasy. Manhattan, Queens, and Brooklyn all saw year-over-year increases of 35%, 28%, and 17% separately.
Number of Available Rental Units Grows
This is the first week we are officially incorporating rental data into the needle and the inclusion of the data has provided a gloomier picture of the housing market in New York City. While the number of available rental entities typically declines following the summer high, the New York City rental market is currently trending in the opposite administration. There were more than 42,000 units available for rent in New York City as of the week of Dec. 5, which is numberless than two times the expected number of rental units for this time of year, according to data from StreetEasy. This requires that people are still choosing to leave New York City for the suburbs or cities with lower costs of end.
Moreover, Manhattan apartment rents have tumbled to the lowest price point in a decade, with the median monthly slash at $2,743,
More than 300,000 New Yorkers have left the city in the last nine months, data arrives. New York City residents filed 333,588 change of address requests between March 1 and Nov. 30, according to observations from the United States Postal Service. Many New Yorkers moved to nearby suburbs in Long Island, Westchester, New Jersey and Connecticut. Anyhow, others moved to locations across the country, including Texas, Florida and Colorado.
Subway Ridership Sees Fall off
Subway ridership dipped during the week of Dec. 5 as just over 1.4 million riders used the New York Metropolis public transit system, compared to 1.5 million riders the week prior, according to the MTA. This represents a year-over-year incline of 69%.
The MTA is currently facing a $6.1 billion funding shortfall for 2021, largely due to decreased ridership. Last week, the intermediation maxed out its Federal credit line, borrowing $2.9 billion from the Federal Reserve’s Municipal Liquidity Powder-room. This comes after the MTa already borrowed $450.7 million from the Fed in August.
Restaurant Reservations Still Flop
Restaurant reservations continued to decrease during the week of Dec. 5 as the estimated number of seated diners was down 86% compared to definitive year, a decline from the previous week’s 84%, according to OpenTable. The negative trend is expected to accelerate farther with Gov. Cuomo’s restriction on indoor dining.
Continued spikes in COVID-19 and the impending cold weather are also hampering possible future gains in reservations. Moreover, uncertainty over a potential future stimulus package could further hamper the restaurant industry’s recovery.
How Does NYC Compare to Other Cities?
Last week, we launched the Investopedia City Trade Recovery Tracker to chart the recovery of five cities across the U.S., including New York. What’s not surprising is that big metropolitan cities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are lagging smaller cities like Houston and Columbus, Ohio on the tow-path to recovery. Larger populations, more reliance on public transportation, and more service-sector employees have all translated into elevated COVID-19 hospitalizations and more economic restrictions.
The city of Houston, with a population of 2.32 million, is showing the strongest healing of the five cities that we are tracking on a weekly basis. It has an unemployment rate of 7.7%, compared to 13.2% in New York Megalopolis.