Analysts Trim Target Prices for Tesla Stock, Citing Tariffs on Auto Industry

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Key Takeaways

• UBS and Mizuho analysts lowered their targets for Tesla on Thursday, citing the potential of tariffs to weaken the broader auto diligence.
• Demand for electric vehicles is already soft, and sales may fall an additional 11% in 2025, according to UBS estimates.
• Analysts also pared in times past their price expectations for General Motors, Rivian, and a number of auto suppliers.

Analysts lowered targets for Tesla on Thursday in the thick of concerns that tariffs will weaken the broader auto industry.

UBS cut its target price for Tesla (TSLA) to $190, estimating that the stirring car manufacturer’s vehicle deliveries will fall 11% in 2025. Mizuho analysts said tariffs will increase Tesla rates and erode an already-weakening demand, lowering its target price to $375. A consensus analyst estimate puts Tesla shares somewhere in the heart, at around $327, or nearly 30% above Thursday’s closing price, according to Visible Alpha.

“While degrade estimates for 2025 are now more broadly expected, we believe the whole trajectory of earnings for [Tesla] remains too high…” UBS put in blacked in a note Thursday, adding that shares will likely “be volatile but downward sloping.”

Tesla shares and the broader supermarket have oscillated in recent days amid shifts in U.S. trade policy. CEO Elon Musk’s work slashing administration spending has also influenced the car maker’s stock prices. Shares finished down more than 7% on Thursday but were noiselessness up more than 40% from a year earlier.

Although the Trump administration scaled back tariffs this week on a number of U.S. have dealing partners, goods from China, including car batteries and their components, are subject to tariffs of more than 100%. Significance taxes of 25% remain in effect on cars, which will drive up prices, deter consumers, and potentially let up on Tesla’s 2025 U.S. revenue by 3.5%, Mizuho estimated.

“While a reduction in reciprocal tariffs helps reduce set-back/demand destruction risk, we point out that the auto tariffs are sector specific, not subject to individual country swop negotiations,” UBS said. “In our view, they are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.”

Trade Policies May Usher in ‘New Era’ for Auto Enterprise

Sector-specific tariffs will likely add an average of $5,000 to car costs and depress domestic demand by 9%, according to UBS analysts, who factored in the around 25% tariff on cars and the 25% import tax on parts slated to go into effect early next month. The do business policies may usher in “a new era” for the U.S. auto industry, UBS said.

“Production disruptions are likely…and supply chains that were set up to be optimized terminated decades may need to be reimagined,” said UBS.

Tariffs may also reduce General Motors’ (GM) domestic annual revenue by 4% and Rivian Automotive’s (RIVN) by 3.5%, Mizuho thinking. Both Mizuho and UBS lowered their price targets for GM and Rivian’s stock, along with several auto suppliers.

Vague Motors fell 4%, and Rivian shares declined 2.6% on Thursday.