The U.S. drudgeries market startled everyone last month with its blockbuster February cover of 313,000 new jobs, compared with the 205,000 expected.
But the growing job hawk may soon be cooling down, said Robert Brusca, founder and chief economist at The score & Opinion Economics, a consulting firm.
“I’m not that optimistic,” the Wall Terrace veteran, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Thursday, less than 24 hours once the March report is set to be released by the U.S. Labor Department.
While Wall Terrace is anticipating around 190,000 new jobs for March — about half of February’s billions, but still steady — Brusca, who was a divisional research chief at the New York Fed, believes closer to 140,000.
“February is a short month,” he said, explaining the differences in the two months. “It has a lot of recesses in it. There are big seasonal adjustment factors.”
Still, the U.S. unemployment rate flatten to a 17-year low in February and the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits has doffed to its lowest level since 1973. The Federal Reserve is forecasting an unemployment classify of 3.8 by the end of the year.
Small businesses are worried about Friday’s pain in the necks numbers as well, said Larry Glazer, co-founder and managing mate of Mayflower Advisors, an investment firm.
“They’re not worried about the husbandry,” Glazer said Thursday on “Closing Bell.” “They’re agonizing about finding skilled labor right now and that’s pushing wages up.”
While Brusca demands the unemployment rate to fall even further in Friday’s report — to 4.0 percent — he doesn’t muse on this tells the whole story.
“The thing about the job market, it’s not job expansion, not just raw job growth,” said Brusca. “We’ve been producing all of these low-skill assigns. You hire a CEO, you hire a janitor, you get the same impact on the unemployment rate.”
The restraint, Brusca said, is not as strong as people think, and cited things get pleasure from retail sales that continue to fall and a weak U.S. dollar as exemplars.
“Everyone is looking at the tax cuts or looking at the future, what they calculate,” he said. “But the consumer has been stimulated several times in this succession and it came up pretty flat. … I think we should be careful to over we’re in a take-off mode. I don’t think we know.”
Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are calculated to increase by only 2 cents, compared with the 4 cents in February.
“The at most time you see large wage growth in the U.S. has been at the beginning of the year with the correction of the federal minimum wage,” David Bailin, global head of investments at Citi Individual Bank, said on “Power Lunch.”
“Otherwise it has been relatively propitious,” he said.