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The five biggest global political risks for the rest of 2018

“What’s worrisome close to the first days of President Trump’s second year is that the state stress emanating from Washington is escalating while the world’s faculties to absorb new shocks is diminishing,” Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Caucus, said in a note this week.

Trump’s White House has strongly signaled its willingness to depart from old U.S. foreign policy.

“So, hold on to your seats for a year ahead that is fraught with risk, one in which the U.S. and the have will face a stress test amid potential political and commercial shocks,” Kempe said.

Those possible shocks, according to Kempe, categorize:

  • “Potential trade wars following the Trump administration’s imposition of new aluminum and brace tariffs, which could be exacerbated by additional trade measures against China, in particular those related to intellectual property theft.”

    The White House is reportedly set to publish Thursday up to $60 billion in new duties on Chinese imports, which could trigger an disputatious response from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Potential targets of retaliation categorize U.S. agriculture products, particularly soybeans.

  • “Dealing with an emboldened Vladimir Putin in Russia.”

    The Russian kingpin secured a fourth term in power on Sunday thanks to a national choice which, as with most Russian elections in recent years, is a great extent suspected of fraud. Putin this week claimed a democratic mandate regular as the Kremlin is believed to have interfered with the most recent U.S. native election and Europe and stands accused by UK authorities of attacking a former Russian operative with a lethal nerve agent on British soil.

  • “Growing tensions with Iran, as Trump’s May deadline to fasten whether to leave the nuclear deal draws closer.”

    Trump’s superintendence is looking to change an existing deal that agreed to lift long-running aids against Tehran in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear program. The coming of the deal is uncertain.

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